In 1998, Oregon introduced the first statewide vote-by-mail (VBM) system, in which all elections are conducted through mail-in ballots. This article attempts to replicate results from a 2000 paper (Southwell and Burchett) which reports that VBM increased Oregon’s voter turnout by 10%.
By graphically analyzing voter turnout over time, the authors find show that Southwell and Burchett’s results do not hold over time. The original paper examines voter turnout in three elections during 1995 and 1996, which appear to be outliers compared to long-term trends.
Additionally, the authors offer a brief literature review which indicates a small but significant (2-4%) increase in voter turnout after the introduction of VBM.
Finally, the authors attempt to replicate the results of Southwell and Burchett, but determine that the supposed 10% increase in turnout is a function of the novelty of the first three VBM elections.